vs
Click a fighter’s name to see their full stats as captured before the event.
Cage Metrics prediction
Our model’s read on this fight, captured before the event.
Momentum is all with Jacobe Smith.
Momentum contrast
Jacobe Smith is on a win streak; Randy Brown is on a losing run.
Heading opposite ways
Jacobe Smith is climbing fast; Randy Brown is showing signs of decline.
Experience gap
Randy Brown has far more UFC experience than Jacobe Smith.
Size mismatch
Randy Brown is taller with a longer reach.
- Win
- Loss
- Draw / no contest
Cage Rating · going into each UFC fight
CM P4P rank · #1 at the top
Randy Brown
Record
14-8-0
Age
36
Last 5
2-3
Finish Rate
31.8%
Jacobe Smith
Record
4-0-0
Age
30
Last 5
4-0
Finish Rate
75.0%
Predicted Winner
Jacobe Smith
68.1%
over Randy Brown (31.9%)
Brown
- •Moderate cardio advantage
- •8-3 vs Strikers
Smith
- •Significant form advantage
- •Moderate grappling advantage
- •4-fight win streak (4 by finish)
- •6 years younger (30 vs 36)
Underdog Bouts
| Opponent | Date | Pred% | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Preston Parsons | Jan 25 | 28.0% | W |
Adjustments Applied
- Randy Brown: in decline (36, 2 straight losses)
- Jacobe Smith: limited fight data (80% reliability)
Randy Brown (positive) vs Jacobe Smith (negative)
slight — Jacobe Smith has 63% striking accuracy; Jacobe Smith KD differential: +0.25/fight; Randy Brown expected 25 vs Jacobe Smith's 12 sig strikes
moderate — Jacobe Smith TD differential: +1.2/fight; Jacobe Smith controls opponents +100s/fight; Randy Brown averages 0.4 sub attempts/fight
moderate — Randy Brown increases output R1→R3 (+14%)
significant — Jacobe Smith has 80% win rate (SoS-adj); Jacobe Smith on better recent form (4-0 L5); Randy Brown is 36 (6 years older); Randy Brown faced tougher opposition (SoS gap: 11.7, 61% effective)
slight — Randy Brown is 12cm taller; Randy Brown has 15cm reach advantage; Jacobe Smith is younger (30 vs 36); Jacobe Smith southpaw vs orthodox
How tough the opponents were, and how each fighter did against them
Randy Brown
Opposition
Performance
Record: 2W-3L · Adj WR: 50.0%
Avg Bout Quality: 52.3
Jacobe Smith
Opposition
Performance
Record: 4W-0L · Adj WR: 100.0%
Avg Bout Quality: 57.3
Randy Brown
Jacobe Smith
Per-metric comparison across all scoring categories
| Metric | Randy Brown | Jacobe Smith |
|---|---|---|
| Sig Strikes Diff/Fight | 11.0 | 12.5 |
| Striking Accuracy | 47.1% | 63.4% |
| Striking Defense | 54.4% | 45.3% |
| KD Diff/Fight | 0.0 | 0.3 |
| Avg Knockdowns | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| Metric | Randy Brown | Jacobe Smith |
|---|---|---|
| TD Diff/Fight | -0.2 | 1.3 |
| Takedown Accuracy | 34.4% | 83.3% |
| Takedown Defense | 74.6% | 100.0% |
| Ctrl Time Diff/Fight | -1:15 | 1:40 |
| Avg Sub Attempts | 0.4 | 0.3 |
| Metric | Randy Brown | Jacobe Smith |
|---|---|---|
| R1 Avg Sig Strikes | 19.4 | 22.3 |
| R3 Avg Sig Strikes | 22.1 | — |
| Output Change R1→R3 | +13.8% | — |
| Metric | Randy Brown | Jacobe Smith |
|---|---|---|
| Win Rate | 63.6% | 100.0% |
| Recent Record (L5) | 2W-3L | 4W-0L |
| Age | 36 | 30 |
| Metric | Randy Brown | Jacobe Smith |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 36 | 30 |
| Height | 190 cm | 178 cm |
| Reach | 198 cm | 183 cm |
| Stance | Orthodox | Southpaw |
| SoS Score | 49.1 | 48.3 |
| Avg Opp Strength | 51.9 | 40.2 |
Model v2.5