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UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. NolanSnapshot captured Oct 30, 20265 roundsmodel v2.5

Click a fighter’s name to see their full stats as captured before the event.

Cage Metrics prediction

Our model’s read on this fight, captured before the event.

A rising prospect takes on a gatekeeper.

Prospect vs gatekeeper
Rising prospect Tom Nolan meets gatekeeper Renato Moicano.
Former UFC top-5 fighter
Renato Moicano was once ranked #4 in the UFC's Featherweight rankings and wants to get back there.
Significant size edge: Tom Nolan
Tom Nolan has the physical edge.
Significant cardio edge: Renato Moicano
Renato Moicano keeps the better pace late in fights.
On a hot streak
Tom Nolan is on a win streak.

Career progression

Win
Loss
Draw / no contest

Cage Rating · going into each UFC fight

CM P4P rank · #1 at the top

Renato Moicano

StrikerMid

Ht 5'11" (180 cm)Reach 72" (183 cm)Orthodox

Record

13-7-0

Age

Last 5

3-2

Finish Rate

20.0%

Dominance Score55.6 / 100

Strength Score56.6(Average)

Action Score56.9(Action-Packed)

Win Rate65.0%

Sig Strikes Diff+5 / fight

Finish Rate20.0%

Hype Score30.4 / 100(4 main events, 11 PPVs)

Tom Nolan

GrapplerMid

Ht 6'3" (190 cm)Reach 73" (185 cm)Southpaw

Record

5-1-0

Age

Last 5

5-0

Finish Rate

33.3%

Dominance Score58.1 / 100

Strength Score50.1(Average)

Action Score62.9(Action-Packed)

Win Rate83.3%

Sig Strikes Diff+8 / fight

Finish Rate33.3%

Hype Score16.4 / 100(2 PPVs)

Predicted Winner

Tom Nolan

62.2%

medium confidence

over Renato Moicano (37.8%)

Key Factors

Moicano

•Significant cardio advantage
•1 upset win from 2 underdog bouts (beating-the-odds bonus applied)

Underdog Bouts

Opponent	Date	Pred%	Result
Chris Duncan	Apr 26	30.4%	W
Islam Makhachev	Jan 25	11.3%	L

Nolan

•Dominant form advantage
•Significant physical advantage
•5-fight win streak (2 by finish)
•11 years younger (26 vs 37)

Underdog Bouts

Opponent	Date	Pred%	Result
Fares Ziam	Jun 26	37.6%	W

Category Advantages

Renato Moicano (positive) vs Tom Nolan (negative)

StrikingMoicano +2.5

moderate — Renato Moicano KD differential: -0.10/fight

StrikingMoicano +2.5moderate — Renato Moicano KD differential: -0.10/fight

GrapplingMoicano +1.5

slight — Renato Moicano controls opponents +49s/fight; Renato Moicano averages 0.3 sub attempts/fight; Tom Nolan averages 0.8 sub attempts/fight

GrapplingMoicano +1.5slight — Renato Moicano controls opponents +49s/fight; Renato Moicano averages 0.3 sub attempts/fight; Tom Nolan averages 0.8 sub attempts/fight

CardioMoicano +5.0

significant — Renato Moicano increases output R1→R3 (+48%)

CardioMoicano +5.0significant — Renato Moicano increases output R1→R3 (+48%)

FormNolan +9.0

dominant — Tom Nolan has 76% win rate (SoS-adj); Tom Nolan on better recent form (5-0 L5); Renato Moicano is 37 (11 years older)

FormNolan +9.0dominant — Tom Nolan has 76% win rate (SoS-adj); Tom Nolan on better recent form (5-0 L5); Renato Moicano is 37 (11 years older)

PhysicalNolan +5.2

significant — Tom Nolan is 10cm taller; Tom Nolan is younger (26 vs 37); Renato Moicano is 37 (potential age decline); Tom Nolan southpaw vs orthodox

PhysicalNolan +5.2significant — Tom Nolan is 10cm taller; Tom Nolan is younger (26 vs 37); Renato Moicano is 37 (potential age decline); Tom Nolan southpaw vs orthodox

Last 5 Fights

How tough the opponents were, and how each fighter did against them

Renato Moicano

Opposition

55.5Strongavg opponent strength

Performance

62.1Strong Recent

Record: 3W-2L · Adj WR: 66.7%

Avg Bout Quality: 62.6

Tom Nolan

Opposition

46.5Averageavg opponent strength

Performance

65.9Strong Recent

Record: 5W-0L · Adj WR: 100.0%

Avg Bout Quality: 39.7

Recent Opponents (Last 5)

Renato Moicano

WChris Duncan

MidGood Windom: 59.0

WChris DuncanMidGood Windom: 59.0

LBeneil Dariush

MidUnlucky Lossdom: 52.6

LBeneil DariushMidUnlucky Lossdom: 52.6

LIslam Makhachev

EliteUnderstandable Lossdom: 72.6

LIslam MakhachevEliteUnderstandable Lossdom: 72.6

WBenoit Saint Denis

MidImpressive Windom: 64.0

WBenoit Saint DenisMidImpressive Windom: 64.0

WJalin Turner

MidGood Windom: 53.7

WJalin TurnerMidGood Windom: 53.7

Tom Nolan

WFares Ziam

MidStandard Windom: 66.6

WFares ZiamMidStandard Windom: 66.6

WCharlie Campbell

LowGood Windom: 56.3

WCharlie CampbellLowGood Windom: 56.3

WViacheslav Borshchev

MidUnimpressive Windom: 40.6

WViacheslav BorshchevMidUnimpressive Windom: 40.6

WAlex Reyes

LowUnimpressive Windom: 41.3

WAlex ReyesLowUnimpressive Windom: 41.3

WVictor Martinez

LowGood Windom: 45.8

WVictor MartinezLowGood Windom: 45.8

Category Breakdown

Per-metric comparison across all scoring categories

StrikingMoicano +2.5

Metric	Renato Moicano	Tom Nolan
Sig Strikes Diff/Fight	5.2	8.3
Striking Accuracy	49.2%	45.4%
Striking Defense	59.8%	48.4%
KD Diff/Fight	-0.1	-0.3
Avg Knockdowns	0.1	0.0

GrapplingMoicano +1.5

Metric	Renato Moicano	Tom Nolan
TD Diff/Fight	0.3	-0.2
Takedown Accuracy	40.4%	26.7%
Takedown Defense	64.3%	58.3%
Ctrl Time Diff/Fight	0:49	-0:41
Avg Sub Attempts	0.3	0.8

CardioMoicano +5.0

Metric	Renato Moicano	Tom Nolan
R1 Avg Sig Strikes	15.3	22.3
R3 Avg Sig Strikes	22.7	17.0
Output Change R1→R3	+48.0%	-23.9%

FormNolan +9.0

Metric	Renato Moicano	Tom Nolan
Win Rate	65.0%	83.3%
Recent Record (L5)	3W-2L	5W-0L
Age	37	26

Physical & SoSNolan +5.2

Metric	Renato Moicano	Tom Nolan
Age	37	26
Height	180 cm	190 cm
Reach	183 cm	185 cm
Stance	Orthodox	Southpaw
SoS Score	56.6	50.1
Avg Opp Strength	54.9	51.1

Method Probability

KO/TKO12.8%

Moicano: 4.1%Nolan: 8.7%

Submission22.2%

Moicano: 13.8%Nolan: 8.4%

Decision65.0%

Moicano: 24.6%Nolan: 40.4%

Model v2.5

Renato MoicanovsTom Nolan

Cage Metrics prediction

Renato Moicano

Tom Nolan

Renato Moicano

Tom Nolan

Renato Moicano

Tom Nolan

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