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UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. NolanSnapshot captured Oct 30, 20263 roundsmodel v2.5

Click a fighter’s name to see their full stats as captured before the event.

Cage Metrics prediction

Our model’s read on this fight, captured before the event.

A classic striker-versus-wrestler contest.

  • Striker vs wrestler

    Ode Osbourne wants it standing; Cody Durden wants it on the mat.

  • Dominant grappling edge: Cody Durden

    Cody Durden out-grapples Ode Osbourne.

  • Size mismatch

    Ode Osbourne has a longer reach.

  • Potential decline

    Cody Durden is showing signs of decline.

Career progression
  • Win
  • Loss
  • Draw / no contest

Cage Rating · going into each UFC fight

CM P4P rank · #1 at the top

Cody Durden

WrestlerMid
Ht 5'7" (170 cm)Reach 67" (170 cm)Southpaw

Record

7-9-0

Age

35

Last 5

1-4

Finish Rate

18.8%

Dominance Score41.3 / 100
Strength Score33.6(Weak)
Action Score59.6(Action-Packed)
Win Rate43.8%
Sig Strikes Diff-5 / fight
Finish Rate18.8%
Hype Score21.1 / 100(4 PPVs)

Ode Osbourne

StrikerMid
Ht 5'7" (170 cm)Reach 73" (185 cm)Southpaw

Record

5-8-0

Age

34

Last 5

1-4

Finish Rate

38.5%

Dominance Score33.1 / 100
Strength Score31.5(Weak)
Action Score55.0(Action-Packed)
Win Rate38.5%
Sig Strikes Diff-3 / fight
Finish Rate38.5%
Hype Score13.8 / 100(4 PPVs)

Predicted Winner

Cody Durden

58.2%

medium confidence

over Ode Osbourne (41.8%)

Key Factors
  • •Cody Durden (Wrestler) vs Ode Osbourne (Striker): Wrestlers have won 60% of these matchups

Durden

  • •Dominant grappling advantage
  • •4-4 vs Strikers

Underdog Bouts

OpponentDatePred%Result
Alessandro CostaJul 2637.3%L
Jafel FilhoApr 2625.0%W
Nyamjargal TumendemberelMar 2630.3%L
Allan NascimentoNov 2531.5%L
Joshua VanDec 2434.4%L

Osbourne

  • •Moderate cardio advantage
  • •Moderate physical advantage

Adjustments Applied

  • Cody Durden: potential decline (35, 1-4 in last 5, 7-9 career)
Category Advantages

Cody Durden (positive) vs Ode Osbourne (negative)

StrikingOsbourne +2.7

moderate — Cody Durden has 48% striking accuracy; Ode Osbourne KD differential: +0.15/fight; Cody Durden expected 17 vs Ode Osbourne's 12 sig strikes

GrapplingDurden +8.1

dominant — Cody Durden TD differential: +2.0/fight; Cody Durden expected 0.9 TDs vs Ode Osbourne's 66% TD def; Cody Durden controls opponents +117s/fight; Cody Durden averages 0.4 sub attempts/fight

CardioOsbourne +3.9

moderate — Ode Osbourne maintains output better (-0% vs -16%)

FormEven

even — Form is similar

PhysicalOsbourne +3.0

moderate — Ode Osbourne has 15cm reach advantage

Last 5 Fights

How tough the opponents were, and how each fighter did against them

Cody Durden

Opposition

44.7Averageavg opponent strength

Performance

36.4Below Average

Record: 1W-4L · Adj WR: 17.9%

Avg Bout Quality: 52.7

Ode Osbourne

Opposition

46.9Averageavg opponent strength

Performance

38.8Below Average

Record: 1W-4L · Adj WR: 12.5%

Avg Bout Quality: 65.6

Recent Opponents (Last 5)

Cody Durden

LAlessandro Costa
MidCompetitive Lossdom: 53.5
WJafel Filho
Middom: 46.8
LNyamjargal Tumendemberel
LowUnderstandable Lossdom: 46.4
LAllan Nascimento
MidCompetitive Lossdom: 50.9
LJose Ochoa
LowUnderstandable Lossdom: 46.5

Ode Osbourne

LAlibi Idiris
LowUnderstandable Lossdom: 45.6
LSteve Erceg
MidUnlucky Lossdom: 42.4
WLuis Gurule
LowGood Win
LRonaldo Rodriguez
LowUnlucky Lossdom: 50.3
LJafel Filho
LowClear Lossdom: 45.5
Category Breakdown

Per-metric comparison across all scoring categories

StrikingOsbourne +2.7

MetricCody DurdenOde Osbourne
Sig Strikes Diff/Fight-4.8-2.9
Striking Accuracy47.6%40.4%
Striking Defense50.5%47.9%
KD Diff/Fight-0.20.2
Avg Knockdowns0.10.3
GrapplingDurden +8.1

MetricCody DurdenOde Osbourne
TD Diff/Fight2.0-0.7
Takedown Accuracy57.7%26.1%
Takedown Defense63.2%65.9%
Ctrl Time Diff/Fight1:57-2:19
Avg Sub Attempts0.40.2
CardioOsbourne +3.9

MetricCody DurdenOde Osbourne
R1 Avg Sig Strikes16.012.5
R3 Avg Sig Strikes13.412.4
Output Change R1→R3-16.1%-0.5%
FormEven

MetricCody DurdenOde Osbourne
Win Rate43.8%38.5%
Recent Record (L5)1W-4L1W-4L
Age3534
Physical & SoSOsbourne +3.0

MetricCody DurdenOde Osbourne
Age3534
Height170 cm170 cm
Reach170 cm185 cm
StanceSouthpawSouthpaw
SoS Score33.631.5
Avg Opp Strength47.344.4
Method Probability
KO/TKO18.7%
Durden: 4.6%Osbourne: 14.0%
Submission16.3%
Durden: 8.1%Osbourne: 8.2%
Decision65.0%
Durden: 37.8%Osbourne: 27.2%

Model v2.5