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UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. NolanSnapshot captured Oct 30, 20263 roundsmodel v2.5

Click a fighter’s name to see their full stats as captured before the event.

Cage Metrics prediction

Our model’s read on this fight, captured before the event.

A rising prospect takes on an experienced veteran.

Prospect vs veteran
Rising prospect Luana Santos meets veteran Yana Santos.
UFC top-10 clash
Yana Santos (#6) and Luana Santos (#4) are both in the UFC's Women's Bantamweight top 10.
Dominant grappling edge: Luana Santos
Luana Santos out-grapples Yana Santos.
Significant striking edge: Yana Santos
Yana Santos out-strikes Luana Santos.
Both on the rise
Yana Santos and Luana Santos are both climbing fast.

Career progression

Win
Loss
Draw / no contest

Cage Rating · going into each UFC fight

CM P4P rank · #1 at the top

Yana Santos

KickerMid

Ht 5'6" (168 cm)Reach 68" (173 cm)Orthodox

Record

7-5-0

Age

Last 5

3-2

Finish Rate

25.0%

Dominance Score42.8 / 100

Strength Score54.8(Average)

Action Score57.5(Action-Packed)

Win Rate58.3%

Sig Strikes Diff+17 / fight

Finish Rate25.0%

Hype Score8.6 / 100(1 main event, 4 PPVs)

Luana Santos

StrikerMid

Ht 5'6" (168 cm)Reach 67" (170 cm)Orthodox

Record

6-1-0

Age

Last 5

4-1

Finish Rate

14.3%

Dominance Score65.8 / 100

Strength Score53.0(Average)

Action Score47.8(Moderate)

Win Rate85.7%

Sig Strikes Diff+1 / fight

Finish Rate14.3%

Hype Score9.6 / 100(1 PPV)

Predicted Winner

Luana Santos

72.4%

high confidence

over Yana Santos (27.6%)

Key Factors

Santos

•Significant striking advantage
•2-3 vs Strikers
•3-fight win streak

Santos

•Dominant form advantage
•Dominant grappling advantage
•3-fight win streak (1 by finish)
•10 years younger (26 vs 36)

Category Advantages

Yana Santos (positive) vs Luana Santos (negative)

StrikingSantos +5.9

significant — Yana Santos out-strikes opponents by +16.5/fight; Yana Santos expected 20 vs Luana Santos's 13 sig strikes

StrikingSantos +5.9significant — Yana Santos out-strikes opponents by +16.5/fight; Yana Santos expected 20 vs Luana Santos's 13 sig strikes

GrapplingSantos +8.7

dominant — Luana Santos TD differential: +1.4/fight; Luana Santos expected 0.8 TDs vs Yana Santos's 52% TD def; Luana Santos controls opponents +325s/fight; Luana Santos averages 0.7 sub attempts/fight

GrapplingSantos +8.7dominant — Luana Santos TD differential: +1.4/fight; Luana Santos expected 0.8 TDs vs Yana Santos's 52% TD def; Luana Santos controls opponents +325s/fight; Luana Santos averages 0.7 sub attempts/fight

CardioSantos +5.0

significant — Yana Santos maintains output better (-30% vs -75%)

CardioSantos +5.0significant — Yana Santos maintains output better (-30% vs -75%)

FormSantos +9.3

dominant — Luana Santos has 77% win rate (SoS-adj); Yana Santos is 36 (10 years older)

FormSantos +9.3dominant — Luana Santos has 77% win rate (SoS-adj); Yana Santos is 36 (10 years older)

PhysicalSantos +0.5

even — Luana Santos is younger (26 vs 36)

PhysicalSantos +0.5even — Luana Santos is younger (26 vs 36)

Last 5 Fights

How tough the opponents were, and how each fighter did against them

Yana Santos

Opposition

43.7Averageavg opponent strength

Performance

55.8Average Recent

Record: 3W-2L · Adj WR: 66.7%

Avg Bout Quality: 53.3

Luana Santos

Opposition

43.9Averageavg opponent strength

Performance

63.0Strong Recent

Record: 4W-1L · Adj WR: 88.1%

Avg Bout Quality: 48.5

Recent Opponents (Last 5)

Yana Santos

WMacy Chiasson

MidUnimpressive Windom: 47.7

WMacy ChiassonMidUnimpressive Windom: 47.7

WMiesha Tate

MidUnimpressive Windom: 49.9

WMiesha TateMidUnimpressive Windom: 49.9

WChelsea Chandler

MidStandard Windom: 51.4

WChelsea ChandlerMidStandard Windom: 51.4

LKarol Rosa

EliteUnlucky Lossdom: 54.1

LKarol RosaEliteUnlucky Lossdom: 54.1

LHolly Holm

MidUnlucky Lossdom: 50.9

LHolly HolmMidUnlucky Lossdom: 50.9

Luana Santos

WKarol Rosa

EliteStandard Windom: 49.0

WKarol RosaEliteStandard Windom: 49.0

WMelissa Croden

LowStandard Windom: 55.3

WMelissa CrodenLowStandard Windom: 55.3

WTainara Lisboa

LowGood Windom: 52.1

WTainara LisboaLowGood Windom: 52.1

LCasey O'Neill

EliteUnderstandable Lossdom: 55.0

LCasey O'NeillEliteUnderstandable Lossdom: 55.0

WMariya Agapova

MidGood Windom: 39.2

WMariya AgapovaMidGood Windom: 39.2

Category Breakdown

Per-metric comparison across all scoring categories

StrikingSantos +5.9

Metric	Yana Santos	Luana Santos
Sig Strikes Diff/Fight	16.5	0.9
Striking Accuracy	57.9%	53.6%
Striking Defense	52.8%	64.0%
KD Diff/Fight	-0.1	0.0
Avg Knockdowns	0.1	0.0

GrapplingSantos +8.7

Metric	Yana Santos	Luana Santos
TD Diff/Fight	-0.6	1.4
Takedown Accuracy	47.1%	37.9%
Takedown Defense	51.6%	85.7%
Ctrl Time Diff/Fight	0:39	5:25
Avg Sub Attempts	0.1	0.7

CardioSantos +5.0

Metric	Yana Santos	Luana Santos
R1 Avg Sig Strikes	21.0	18.1
R3 Avg Sig Strikes	14.7	4.5
Output Change R1→R3	-30.0%	-75.2%

FormSantos +9.3

Metric	Yana Santos	Luana Santos
Win Rate	58.3%	85.7%
Recent Record (L5)	3W-2L	4W-1L
Age	36	26

Physical & SoSSantos +0.5

Metric	Yana Santos	Luana Santos
Age	36	26
Height	168 cm	168 cm
Reach	173 cm	170 cm
Stance	Orthodox	Orthodox
SoS Score	54.8	53.0
Avg Opp Strength	51.4	49.7

Method Probability

KO/TKO18.1%

Santos: 7.4%Santos: 10.7%

Submission16.9%

Santos: 3.1%Santos: 13.7%

Decision65.0%

Santos: 18.0%Santos: 47.0%

Model v2.5

Yana SantosvsLuana Santos

Cage Metrics prediction

Yana Santos

Luana Santos

Yana Santos

Luana Santos

Yana Santos

Luana Santos

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