vs
Click a fighter’s name to see their full stats as captured before the event.
Cage Metrics prediction
Our model’s read on this fight, captured before the event.
Zach Reese holds a dominant striking edge.
Dominant striking edge: Zach Reese
Zach Reese out-strikes Mickey Gall.
Must-win fight
Mickey Gall is on a losing run.
Long layoff
Mickey Gall returns after a long layoff.
Both in potential decline
Mickey Gall and Zach Reese are both in potential decline.
- Win
- Loss
- Draw / no contest
Cage Rating · going into each UFC fight
CM P4P rank · #1 at the top
Mickey Gall
Record
6-7-0
Age
34
Last 5
1-4
Finish Rate
23.1%
Zach Reese
Record
4-4-0
Age
32
Last 5
2-3
Finish Rate
50.0%
Predicted Winner
Zach Reese
80.5%
over Mickey Gall (19.5%)
Gall
- •4-5 vs Strikers
- •Severe ring rust (24 months layoff)
Reese
- •Dominant striking advantage
- •Moderate physical advantage
- •Moderate form advantage
Underdog Bouts
| Opponent | Date | Pred% | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Gandra | Jul 26 | 39.4% | L |
Adjustments Applied
- Mickey Gall: in decline (4 straight losses)
Mickey Gall (positive) vs Zach Reese (negative)
dominant — Zach Reese out-strikes opponents by +4.0/fight; Zach Reese KD differential: +0.00/fight
slight — Zach Reese expected 0.9 TDs vs Mickey Gall's 38% TD def; Mickey Gall averages 0.8 sub attempts/fight; Zach Reese averages 0.5 sub attempts/fight
moderate — Cardio metrics are similar
moderate — Form is similar
moderate — Zach Reese is 5cm taller; Zach Reese has 8cm reach advantage; Mickey Gall is a switch-stance fighter
How tough the opponents were, and how each fighter did against them
Mickey Gall
Opposition
Performance
Record: 1W-4L · Adj WR: 13.2%
Avg Bout Quality: 48.0
Zach Reese
Opposition
Performance
Record: 2W-3L · Adj WR: 32.1%
Avg Bout Quality: 53.4
Mickey Gall
Zach Reese
Per-metric comparison across all scoring categories
| Metric | Mickey Gall | Zach Reese |
|---|---|---|
| Sig Strikes Diff/Fight | -9.8 | 4.0 |
| Striking Accuracy | 49.6% | 54.5% |
| Striking Defense | 49.6% | 39.8% |
| KD Diff/Fight | -0.2 | 0.0 |
| Avg Knockdowns | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| Metric | Mickey Gall | Zach Reese |
|---|---|---|
| TD Diff/Fight | -0.2 | 0.3 |
| Takedown Accuracy | 32.0% | 61.1% |
| Takedown Defense | 37.5% | 55.0% |
| Ctrl Time Diff/Fight | -0:41 | -0:23 |
| Avg Sub Attempts | 0.8 | 0.5 |
| Metric | Mickey Gall | Zach Reese |
|---|---|---|
| R1 Avg Sig Strikes | 13.2 | 13.8 |
| R3 Avg Sig Strikes | 21.0 | 23.0 |
| Output Change R1→R3 | +58.7% | +66.9% |
| Metric | Mickey Gall | Zach Reese |
|---|---|---|
| Win Rate | 46.2% | 50.0% |
| Recent Record (L5) | 1W-4L | 2W-3L |
| Age | 34 | 32 |
| Metric | Mickey Gall | Zach Reese |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 34 | 32 |
| Height | 188 cm | 193 cm |
| Reach | 188 cm | 196 cm |
| Stance | Switch | Switch |
| SoS Score | 25.7 | 33.3 |
| Avg Opp Strength | 42.8 | 42.0 |
Most likely finish: Round 3
Model v2.5