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UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. NolanSnapshot captured Oct 30, 20263 roundsmodel v2.5

Click a fighter’s name to see their full stats as captured before the event.

Cage Metrics prediction

Our model’s read on this fight, captured before the event.

Julian Erosa holds a dominant grappling edge.

Dominant grappling edge: Julian Erosa
Julian Erosa out-grapples JeongYeong Lee.
Significant cardio edge: Julian Erosa
Julian Erosa keeps the better pace late in fights.
Experience gap
Julian Erosa has far more UFC experience than JeongYeong Lee.
Both in potential decline
Julian Erosa and JeongYeong Lee are both in potential decline.

Career progression

Win
Loss
Draw / no contest

Cage Rating · going into each UFC fight

CM P4P rank · #1 at the top

Julian Erosa

StrikerMid

Ht 6'1" (185 cm)Reach 74" (188 cm)Southpaw

Record

9-9-0

Age

Last 5

3-2

Finish Rate

50.0%

Dominance Score49.9 / 100

Strength Score36.3(Below Average)

Action Score71.8(Action-Packed)

Win Rate50.0%

Sig Strikes Diff-1 / fight

Finish Rate50.0%

Hype Score15.1 / 100(3 PPVs)

JeongYeong Lee

StrikerMid

Ht 5'10" (178 cm)Reach 73" (185 cm)Orthodox

Record

2-2-0

Age

Last 5

2-2

Finish Rate

25.0%

Dominance Score38.8 / 100

Strength Score44.5(Below Average)

Action Score53.1(Moderate)

Win Rate50.0%

Sig Strikes Diff-7 / fight

Finish Rate25.0%

Hype Score12.5 / 100(1 PPV)

Predicted Winner

JeongYeong Lee

52.6%

low confidence

over Julian Erosa (47.4%)

Key Factors

Erosa

•Dominant grappling advantage
•Significant cardio advantage
•6-6 vs Strikers

Underdog Bouts

Opponent	Date	Pred%	Result
Melquizael Costa	May 25	33.4%	L

Lee

•Moderate form advantage
•7 years younger (30 vs 37)
•Ring rust (18 months layoff)

Adjustments Applied

JeongYeong Lee: limited fight data (80% reliability)

Category Advantages

Julian Erosa (positive) vs JeongYeong Lee (negative)

StrikingLee +0.5

even — Julian Erosa out-strikes opponents by -1.3/fight; JeongYeong Lee KD differential: +0.00/fight

StrikingLee +0.5even — Julian Erosa out-strikes opponents by -1.3/fight; JeongYeong Lee KD differential: +0.00/fight

GrapplingErosa +7.2

dominant — Julian Erosa TD differential: +0.1/fight; Julian Erosa controls opponents +7s/fight; Julian Erosa averages 0.4 sub attempts/fight

GrapplingErosa +7.2dominant — Julian Erosa TD differential: +0.1/fight; Julian Erosa controls opponents +7s/fight; Julian Erosa averages 0.4 sub attempts/fight

CardioErosa +5.0

significant — Julian Erosa increases output R1→R3 (+16%)

CardioErosa +5.0significant — Julian Erosa increases output R1→R3 (+16%)

FormLee +3.5

moderate — Julian Erosa is 37 (7 years older)

FormLee +3.5moderate — Julian Erosa is 37 (7 years older)

PhysicalErosa +0.6

slight — Julian Erosa is 7cm taller; JeongYeong Lee is younger (30 vs 37); Julian Erosa is 37 (potential age decline); Julian Erosa southpaw vs orthodox

PhysicalErosa +0.6slight — Julian Erosa is 7cm taller; JeongYeong Lee is younger (30 vs 37); Julian Erosa is 37 (potential age decline); Julian Erosa southpaw vs orthodox

Last 5 Fights

How tough the opponents were, and how each fighter did against them

Julian Erosa

Opposition

45.9Averageavg opponent strength

Performance

51.9Average Recent

Record: 3W-2L · Adj WR: 56.6%

Avg Bout Quality: 51.8

JeongYeong Lee

Opposition

47.9Averageavg opponent strength

Performance

43.5Below Average

Record: 2W-2L · Adj WR: 37.8%

Avg Bout Quality: 46.5

Recent Opponents (Last 5)

Julian Erosa

LLerryan Douglas

LowUnderstandable Loss

LLerryan DouglasLowUnderstandable Loss

LMelquizael Costa

MidUnderstandable Lossdom: 47.0

LMelquizael CostaMidUnderstandable Lossdom: 47.0

WDarren Elkins

MidGood Windom: 53.5

WDarren ElkinsMidGood Windom: 53.5

WChristian Rodriguez

MidGood Windom: 47.8

WChristian RodriguezMidGood Windom: 47.8

WRicardo Ramos

MidGood Windom: 47.1

WRicardo RamosMidGood Windom: 47.1

JeongYeong Lee

LDaniel Santos

MidUnlucky Lossdom: 53.2

LDaniel SantosMidUnlucky Lossdom: 53.2

LHyder Amil

LowUnderstandable Lossdom: 55.3

LHyder AmilLowUnderstandable Lossdom: 55.3

WBlake Bilder

LowUnimpressive Windom: 48.4

WBlake BilderLowUnimpressive Windom: 48.4

WYizha

LowUnimpressive Win

WYizhaLowUnimpressive Win

Category Breakdown

Per-metric comparison across all scoring categories

StrikingLee +0.5

Metric	Julian Erosa	JeongYeong Lee
Sig Strikes Diff/Fight	-1.3	-7.3
Striking Accuracy	48.0%	48.8%
Striking Defense	49.5%	51.3%
KD Diff/Fight	-0.5	0.0
Avg Knockdowns	0.1	0.0

GrapplingErosa +7.2

Metric	Julian Erosa	JeongYeong Lee
TD Diff/Fight	0.1	-2.3
Takedown Accuracy	44.7%	66.7%
Takedown Defense	61.5%	73.8%
Ctrl Time Diff/Fight	0:07	-3:35
Avg Sub Attempts	0.4	0.0

CardioErosa +5.0

Metric	Julian Erosa	JeongYeong Lee
R1 Avg Sig Strikes	20.9	15.3
R3 Avg Sig Strikes	24.4	11.0
Output Change R1→R3	+16.4%	-27.9%

FormLee +3.5

Metric	Julian Erosa	JeongYeong Lee
Win Rate	50.0%	50.0%
Recent Record (L5)	3W-2L	2W-2L
Age	37	30

Physical & SoSErosa +0.6

Metric	Julian Erosa	JeongYeong Lee
Age	37	30
Height	185 cm	178 cm
Reach	188 cm	185 cm
Stance	Southpaw	Orthodox
SoS Score	36.3	44.5
Avg Opp Strength	46.7	50.8

Method Probability

KO/TKO19.4%

Erosa: 7.8%Lee: 11.7%

Submission16.2%

Erosa: 10.8%Lee: 5.4%

Decision64.4%

Erosa: 30.5%Lee: 33.9%

Model v2.5

Julian ErosavsJeongYeong Lee

Cage Metrics prediction

Julian Erosa

JeongYeong Lee

Julian Erosa

JeongYeong Lee

Julian Erosa

JeongYeong Lee

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