vs
Click a fighter’s name to see their full stats as captured before the event.
Cage Metrics prediction
Our model’s read on this fight, captured before the event.
Piera Rodriguez holds a significant size edge.
Significant size edge: Piera Rodriguez
Piera Rodriguez has the physical edge.
Significant cardio edge: Talita Alencar
Talita Alencar keeps the better pace late in fights.
Both on the rise
Talita Alencar and Piera Rodriguez are both climbing fast.
Career-high UFC ranking
Talita Alencar is at the highest UFC ranking of their career: #13 at Women's Strawweight.
- Win
- Loss
- Draw / no contest
Cage Rating · going into each UFC fight
CM P4P rank · #1 at the top
Talita Alencar
Record
4-1-0
Age
36
Last 5
4-1
Finish Rate
0.0%
Piera Rodriguez
Record
5-2-0
Age
33
Last 5
3-2
Finish Rate
14.3%
Predicted Winner
Piera Rodriguez
61.5%
over Talita Alencar (38.5%)
- •Piera Rodriguez (Elite) vs Talita Alencar (Mid)
Alencar
- •Significant cardio advantage
- •3-fight win streak (1 by finish)
Rodriguez
- •Dominant striking advantage
- •Significant physical advantage
- •3-fight win streak
Talita Alencar (positive) vs Piera Rodriguez (negative)
dominant — Piera Rodriguez out-strikes opponents by +13.0/fight; Piera Rodriguez KD differential: +0.14/fight
significant — Talita Alencar expected 0.5 TDs vs Piera Rodriguez's 82% TD def; Talita Alencar controls opponents +221s/fight; Talita Alencar averages 0.6 sub attempts/fight
significant — Talita Alencar increases output R1→R3 (+29%)
slight — Form is similar
significant — Piera Rodriguez is 5cm taller; Piera Rodriguez has 13cm reach advantage
How tough the opponents were, and how each fighter did against them
Talita Alencar
Opposition
Performance
Record: 4W-1L · Adj WR: 74.0%
Avg Bout Quality: 40.6
Piera Rodriguez
Opposition
Performance
Record: 3W-2L · Adj WR: 57.4%
Avg Bout Quality: 47.6
Talita Alencar
Piera Rodriguez
Per-metric comparison across all scoring categories
| Metric | Talita Alencar | Piera Rodriguez |
|---|---|---|
| Sig Strikes Diff/Fight | 0.0 | 13.0 |
| Striking Accuracy | 50.1% | 48.6% |
| Striking Defense | 60.5% | 53.1% |
| KD Diff/Fight | -0.2 | 0.1 |
| Avg Knockdowns | 0.0 | 0.1 |
| Metric | Talita Alencar | Piera Rodriguez |
|---|---|---|
| TD Diff/Fight | 2.8 | 3.1 |
| Takedown Accuracy | 43.8% | 59.1% |
| Takedown Defense | 100.0% | 81.8% |
| Ctrl Time Diff/Fight | 3:41 | 2:18 |
| Avg Sub Attempts | 0.6 | 0.0 |
| Metric | Talita Alencar | Piera Rodriguez |
|---|---|---|
| R1 Avg Sig Strikes | 13.8 | 20.4 |
| R3 Avg Sig Strikes | 17.8 | 21.4 |
| Output Change R1→R3 | +29.1% | +4.8% |
| Metric | Talita Alencar | Piera Rodriguez |
|---|---|---|
| Win Rate | 80.0% | 71.4% |
| Recent Record (L5) | 4W-1L | 3W-2L |
| Age | 36 | 33 |
| Metric | Talita Alencar | Piera Rodriguez |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 36 | 33 |
| Height | 155 cm | 160 cm |
| Reach | 147 cm | 160 cm |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| SoS Score | 43.8 | 47.7 |
| Avg Opp Strength | 43.5 | 47.5 |
Model v2.5