CageMetrics
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vsOllie Schmid

UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. BradySnapshot captured Oct 30, 20263 roundsmodel v2.5

Click a fighter’s name to see their full stats as captured before the event.

Cage Metrics prediction

Our model’s read on this fight, captured before the event.

Career progression
  • Win
  • Loss
  • Draw / no contest

Cage Rating · going into each UFC fight

CM P4P rank · #1 at the top

Predicted Winner

Keiichiro Nakamura

60.4%

low confidence

over Ollie Schmid (39.6%)

Key Factors

Nakamura

  • •Significant form advantage
  • •Moderate cardio advantage

Schmid

  • •Slight grappling advantage

Underdog Bouts

OpponentDatePred%Result
Marwan RahikiMay 2637.6%L

Adjustments Applied

  • Keiichiro Nakamura: limited fight data (50% reliability)
  • Ollie Schmid: limited fight data (50% reliability)
Category Advantages

Keiichiro Nakamura (positive) vs Ollie Schmid (negative)

StrikingNakamura +1.0

slight — Ollie Schmid out-strikes opponents by -13.0/fight; Keiichiro Nakamura has 38% striking accuracy; Keiichiro Nakamura KD differential: +1.00/fight; Keiichiro Nakamura expected 20 vs Ollie Schmid's 3 sig strikes

GrapplingSchmid +1.1

slight — Ollie Schmid TD differential: +0.0/fight

CardioNakamura +2.0

moderate — Keiichiro Nakamura increases output R1→R3 (+62%)

FormNakamura +4.0

significant — Keiichiro Nakamura has 80% win rate (SoS-adj); Keiichiro Nakamura on better recent form (1-0 L5)

PhysicalSchmid +0.6

slight — Ollie Schmid is 5cm taller; Keiichiro Nakamura southpaw vs orthodox

Last 5 Fights

How tough the opponents were, and how each fighter did against them

Keiichiro Nakamura

Performance

72.7Strong Recent

Record: 1W-0L · Adj WR: 100.0%

Avg Bout Quality: 59.0

Ollie Schmid

Opposition

50.4avg opponent strength

Performance

29.0Below Average

Record: 0W-1L · Adj WR: 0.0%

Avg Bout Quality: 46.3

Recent Opponents (Last 5)

Keiichiro Nakamura

WSebastian Szalay
LowGood Win

Ollie Schmid

LMarwan Rahiki
LowUnderstandable Lossdom: 54.2
Category Breakdown

Per-metric comparison across all scoring categories

StrikingNakamura +1.0

MetricKeiichiro NakamuraOllie Schmid
Sig Strikes Diff/Fight-34.0-13.0
Striking Accuracy37.8%30.0%
Striking Defense61.3%—
KD Diff/Fight1.0-1.0
Avg Knockdowns1.00.0
GrapplingSchmid +1.1

MetricKeiichiro NakamuraOllie Schmid
TD Diff/Fight-1.00.0
Takedown Accuracy——
Takedown Defense0.0%—
Ctrl Time Diff/Fight0:04-0:04
Avg Sub Attempts0.00.0
CardioNakamura +2.0

MetricKeiichiro NakamuraOllie Schmid
R1 Avg Sig Strikes13.09.0
R3 Avg Sig Strikes21.0—
Output Change R1→R3+61.5%—
FormNakamura +4.0

MetricKeiichiro NakamuraOllie Schmid
Win Rate100.0%0.0%
Recent Record (L5)1W-0L0W-1L
Age2725
Physical & SoSSchmid +0.6

MetricKeiichiro NakamuraOllie Schmid
Age2725
Height178 cm183 cm
Reach178 cm180 cm
StanceSouthpawOrthodox
SoS Score50.646.9
Avg Opp Strength40.054.2
Method Probability

Most likely finish: Round 2

KO/TKO41.1%
Nakamura: 34.4%Schmid: 6.7%
Submission25.5%
Nakamura: 15.4%Schmid: 10.1%
Decision33.4%
Nakamura: 20.2%Schmid: 13.2%

Model v2.5