vsLucas Brennan
Click a fighter’s name to see their full stats as captured before the event.
Cage Metrics prediction
Our model’s read on this fight, captured before the event.
Austin Bashi holds a significant grappling edge.
Significant grappling edge: Austin Bashi
Austin Bashi out-grapples Lucas Brennan.
Significant cardio edge: Austin Bashi
Austin Bashi keeps the better pace late in fights.
- Win
- Loss
- Draw / no contest
Cage Rating · going into each UFC fight
CM P4P rank · #1 at the top
Predicted Winner
Austin Bashi
58.9%
over Lucas Brennan (41.1%)
- •Austin Bashi (Mid) vs Lucas Brennan (Low)
Bashi
- •Significant grappling advantage
- •Significant form advantage
- •Significant cardio advantage
Underdog Bouts
| Opponent | Date | Pred% | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Rodriguez | Jan 25 | 36.5% | L |
Brennan
No key factors
Underdog Bouts
| Opponent | Date | Pred% | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Francis Marshall | Apr 26 | 37.0% | L |
Adjustments Applied
- Austin Bashi: limited fight data (65% reliability)
- Lucas Brennan: limited fight data (50% reliability)
Austin Bashi (positive) vs Lucas Brennan (negative)
significant — Austin Bashi out-strikes opponents by -7.3/fight; Austin Bashi has 40% striking accuracy; Lucas Brennan KD differential: +0.00/fight; Austin Bashi expected 9 vs Lucas Brennan's 0 sig strikes
significant — Austin Bashi TD differential: +1.3/fight; Austin Bashi expected 0.9 TDs vs Lucas Brennan's 60% TD def; Austin Bashi controls opponents +130s/fight; Austin Bashi averages 0.7 sub attempts/fight; Lucas Brennan averages 1.0 sub attempts/fight
significant — Austin Bashi increases output R1→R3 (+87%)
significant — Austin Bashi has 39% win rate (SoS-adj)
significant — Lucas Brennan is 10cm taller; Lucas Brennan has 5cm reach advantage; Lucas Brennan southpaw vs orthodox
How tough the opponents were, and how each fighter did against them
Austin Bashi
Opposition
Performance
Record: 1W-2L · Adj WR: 25.9%
Avg Bout Quality: 60.4
Lucas Brennan
Opposition
Performance
Record: 0W-1L · Adj WR: 0.0%
Austin Bashi
Lucas Brennan
Per-metric comparison across all scoring categories
| Metric | Austin Bashi | Lucas Brennan |
|---|---|---|
| Sig Strikes Diff/Fight | -7.3 | -24.0 |
| Striking Accuracy | 39.6% | — |
| Striking Defense | 49.4% | — |
| KD Diff/Fight | -0.3 | 0.0 |
| Avg Knockdowns | 0.0 | — |
| Metric | Austin Bashi | Lucas Brennan |
|---|---|---|
| TD Diff/Fight | 1.3 | -2.0 |
| Takedown Accuracy | 21.2% | — |
| Takedown Defense | 57.1% | — |
| Ctrl Time Diff/Fight | 2:10 | 0:00 |
| Avg Sub Attempts | 0.7 | 1.0 |
| Metric | Austin Bashi | Lucas Brennan |
|---|---|---|
| R1 Avg Sig Strikes | 6.7 | — |
| R3 Avg Sig Strikes | 12.5 | — |
| Output Change R1→R3 | +87.5% | — |
| Metric | Austin Bashi | Lucas Brennan |
|---|---|---|
| Win Rate | 33.3% | 0.0% |
| Recent Record (L5) | 1W-2L | 0W-1L |
| Age | 25 | 26 |
| Metric | Austin Bashi | Lucas Brennan |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 25 | 26 |
| Height | 168 cm | 178 cm |
| Reach | 178 cm | 183 cm |
| Stance | Orthodox | Southpaw |
| SoS Score | 43.7 | 46.9 |
| Avg Opp Strength | 47.8 | 49.5 |
Most likely finish: Round 1
Model v2.5