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Click a fighter’s name to see their full stats as captured before the event.
Cage Metrics prediction
Our model’s read on this fight, captured before the event.
Karine Silva holds a dominant grappling edge.
Dominant grappling edge: Karine Silva
Karine Silva out-grapples Gabriella Fernandes.
Heading opposite ways
Gabriella Fernandes is climbing fast; Karine Silva is showing signs of decline.
Significant cardio edge: Gabriella Fernandes
Gabriella Fernandes keeps the better pace late in fights.
Tougher recent opposition: Karine Silva
Karine Silva has faced tougher opponents lately, including Maycee Barber and Dione Barbosa.
Career-high UFC ranking
Gabriella Fernandes is at the highest UFC ranking of their career: #14 at Women's Flyweight.
- Win
- Loss
- Draw / no contest
Cage Rating · going into each UFC fight
CM P4P rank · #1 at the top
Gabriella Fernandes
Record
3-3-0
Age
33
Last 5
3-2
Finish Rate
16.7%
Karine Silva
Record
5-3-0
Age
32
Last 5
2-3
Finish Rate
0.0%
Predicted Winner
Karine Silva
67.1%
over Gabriella Fernandes (32.9%)
Fernandes
- •Significant cardio advantage
- •1-2 vs Grapplers
Silva
- •Dominant grappling advantage
- •Significant striking advantage
- •3-1 vs Strikers
Gabriella Fernandes (positive) vs Karine Silva (negative)
significant — Karine Silva out-strikes opponents by -4.0/fight; Karine Silva KD differential: +0.12/fight; Gabriella Fernandes expected 21 vs Karine Silva's 12 sig strikes
dominant — Karine Silva TD differential: +0.0/fight; Karine Silva controls opponents +15s/fight; Karine Silva averages 1.0 sub attempts/fight
significant — Gabriella Fernandes increases output R1→R3 (+15%)
even — Form is similar
even — Gabriella Fernandes southpaw vs orthodox
How tough the opponents were, and how each fighter did against them
Gabriella Fernandes
Opposition
Performance
Record: 3W-2L · Adj WR: 57.1%
Avg Bout Quality: 38.3
Karine Silva
Opposition
Performance
Record: 2W-3L · Adj WR: 44.4%
Avg Bout Quality: 48.4
Gabriella Fernandes
Karine Silva
Per-metric comparison across all scoring categories
| Metric | Gabriella Fernandes | Karine Silva |
|---|---|---|
| Sig Strikes Diff/Fight | -21.5 | -4.0 |
| Striking Accuracy | 46.6% | 43.5% |
| Striking Defense | 52.3% | 49.6% |
| KD Diff/Fight | 0.0 | 0.1 |
| Avg Knockdowns | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| Metric | Gabriella Fernandes | Karine Silva |
|---|---|---|
| TD Diff/Fight | -1.2 | 0.0 |
| Takedown Accuracy | 18.2% | 54.5% |
| Takedown Defense | 69.0% | 25.0% |
| Ctrl Time Diff/Fight | -3:33 | 0:15 |
| Avg Sub Attempts | 0.2 | 1.0 |
| Metric | Gabriella Fernandes | Karine Silva |
|---|---|---|
| R1 Avg Sig Strikes | 15.7 | 13.4 |
| R3 Avg Sig Strikes | 18.0 | 11.8 |
| Output Change R1→R3 | +14.9% | -12.5% |
| Metric | Gabriella Fernandes | Karine Silva |
|---|---|---|
| Win Rate | 50.0% | 62.5% |
| Recent Record (L5) | 3W-2L | 2W-3L |
| Age | 33 | 32 |
| Metric | Gabriella Fernandes | Karine Silva |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 33 | 32 |
| Height | 168 cm | 165 cm |
| Reach | 168 cm | 170 cm |
| Stance | Southpaw | Orthodox |
| SoS Score | 39.6 | 43.8 |
| Avg Opp Strength | 47.6 | 46.9 |
Model v2.5