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UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. BradySnapshot captured Oct 30, 20263 roundsmodel v2.5

Click a fighter’s name to see their full stats as captured before the event.

Cage Metrics prediction

Our model’s read on this fight, captured before the event.

A rising prospect takes on a gatekeeper.

Prospect vs gatekeeper
Rising prospect Elijah Smith meets gatekeeper Davey Grant.
Significant cardio edge: Davey Grant
Davey Grant keeps the better pace late in fights.
Both on the rise
Davey Grant and Elijah Smith are both climbing.
Tougher recent opposition: Davey Grant
Davey Grant has faced tougher opponents lately, including Daniel Marcos and Da'Mon Blackshear.

Career progression

Win
Loss
Draw / no contest

Cage Rating · going into each UFC fight

CM P4P rank · #1 at the top

Davey Grant

KickerMid

Ht 5'8" (173 cm)Reach 69" (175 cm)Orthodox

Record

9-7-0

Age

Last 5

3-2

Finish Rate

18.8%

Dominance Score51.3 / 100

Strength Score44.9(Below Average)

Action Score65.9(Action-Packed)

Win Rate56.3%

Sig Strikes Diff+18 / fight

Finish Rate18.8%

Hype Score13.9 / 100(2 PPVs)

Elijah Smith

ProspectGrapplerMid

Ht 5'9" (175 cm)Reach 71" (180 cm)Orthodox

Record

3-0-0

Age

Last 5

3-0

Finish Rate

33.3%

Dominance Score59.0 / 100

Strength Score51.9(Average)

Action Score54.7(Moderate)

Win Rate100.0%

Sig Strikes Diff+17 / fight

Finish Rate33.3%

Hype Score15.9 / 100

Predicted Winner

Elijah Smith

74.0%

medium confidence

over Davey Grant (26.0%)

Key Factors

Grant

•Significant cardio advantage
•2-2 vs Grapplers
•1 upset win from 1 underdog bout (beating-the-odds bonus applied)

Underdog Bouts

Opponent	Date	Pred%	Result
Ramon Taveras	Dec 24	32.5%	W

Smith

•Dominant form advantage
•Moderate physical advantage
•3-fight win streak (2 by finish)
•16 years younger (24 vs 40)

Adjustments Applied

Elijah Smith: limited fight data (65% reliability)

Category Advantages

Davey Grant (positive) vs Elijah Smith (negative)

StrikingSmith +1.6

slight — Elijah Smith KD differential: +0.33/fight; Davey Grant expected 31 vs Elijah Smith's 14 sig strikes

StrikingSmith +1.6slight — Elijah Smith KD differential: +0.33/fight; Davey Grant expected 31 vs Elijah Smith's 14 sig strikes

GrapplingSmith +1.6

slight — Davey Grant TD differential: -0.2/fight; Elijah Smith controls opponents +48s/fight; Elijah Smith averages 0.7 sub attempts/fight

GrapplingSmith +1.6slight — Davey Grant TD differential: -0.2/fight; Elijah Smith controls opponents +48s/fight; Elijah Smith averages 0.7 sub attempts/fight

CardioGrant +4.8

significant — Davey Grant increases output R1→R3 (+21%)

CardioGrant +4.8significant — Davey Grant increases output R1→R3 (+21%)

FormSmith +9.9

dominant — Elijah Smith has 83% win rate (SoS-adj); Elijah Smith on better recent form (3-0 L5); Davey Grant is 40 (16 years older)

FormSmith +9.9dominant — Elijah Smith has 83% win rate (SoS-adj); Elijah Smith on better recent form (3-0 L5); Davey Grant is 40 (16 years older)

PhysicalSmith +3.5

moderate — Elijah Smith has 5cm reach advantage; Davey Grant is 40 (potential age decline)

PhysicalSmith +3.5moderate — Elijah Smith has 5cm reach advantage; Davey Grant is 40 (potential age decline)

Last 5 Fights

How tough the opponents were, and how each fighter did against them

Davey Grant

Opposition

48.1Averageavg opponent strength

Performance

50.7Average Recent

Record: 3W-2L · Adj WR: 51.1%

Avg Bout Quality: 52.8

Elijah Smith

Opposition

42.4Softavg opponent strength

Performance

66.7Strong Recent

Record: 3W-0L · Adj WR: 100.0%

Avg Bout Quality: 46.5

Recent Opponents (Last 5)

Davey Grant

WAdrian Luna Martinetti

Low

WAdrian Luna MartinettiLow

LCharles Jourdain

MidUnderstandable Lossdom: 42.9

LCharles JourdainMidUnderstandable Lossdom: 42.9

WDa'Mon Blackshear

MidUnimpressive Windom: 48.8

WDa'Mon BlackshearMidUnimpressive Windom: 48.8

WRamon Taveras

LowStandard Windom: 51.0

WRamon TaverasLowStandard Windom: 51.0

LDaniel Marcos

LowUnlucky Lossdom: 54.2

LDaniel MarcosLowUnlucky Lossdom: 54.2

Elijah Smith

WSuYoung You

MidGood Windom: 56.4

WSuYoung YouMidGood Windom: 56.4

WToshiomi Kazama

MidImpressive Windom: 42.2

WToshiomi KazamaMidImpressive Windom: 42.2

WVince Morales

LowUnimpressive Windom: 33.2

WVince MoralesLowUnimpressive Windom: 33.2

Category Breakdown

Per-metric comparison across all scoring categories

StrikingSmith +1.6

Metric	Davey Grant	Elijah Smith
Sig Strikes Diff/Fight	18.4	16.7
Striking Accuracy	52.4%	54.7%
Striking Defense	55.5%	53.5%
KD Diff/Fight	0.0	0.3
Avg Knockdowns	0.3	0.3

GrapplingSmith +1.6

Metric	Davey Grant	Elijah Smith
TD Diff/Fight	-0.3	-1.3
Takedown Accuracy	40.0%	75.0%
Takedown Defense	63.4%	46.2%
Ctrl Time Diff/Fight	-0:16	0:48
Avg Sub Attempts	0.1	0.7

CardioGrant +4.8

Metric	Davey Grant	Elijah Smith
R1 Avg Sig Strikes	20.1	19.7
R3 Avg Sig Strikes	24.3	20.0
Output Change R1→R3	+21.0%	+1.7%

FormSmith +9.9

Metric	Davey Grant	Elijah Smith
Win Rate	56.3%	100.0%
Recent Record (L5)	3W-2L	3W-0L
Age	40	24

Physical & SoSSmith +3.5

Metric	Davey Grant	Elijah Smith
Age	40	24
Height	173 cm	175 cm
Reach	175 cm	180 cm
Stance	Orthodox	Orthodox
SoS Score	44.9	51.9
Avg Opp Strength	48.6	46.9

Method Probability

KO/TKO20.2%

Grant: 5.3%Smith: 14.9%

Submission14.8%

Grant: 1.6%Smith: 13.2%

Decision65.0%

Grant: 16.9%Smith: 48.1%

Model v2.5

Davey GrantvsElijah Smith

Cage Metrics prediction

Davey Grant

Elijah Smith

Davey Grant

Elijah Smith

Davey Grant

Elijah Smith

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