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UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. BradySnapshot captured Oct 30, 20263 roundsmodel v2.5

Click a fighter’s name to see their full stats as captured before the event.

Cage Metrics prediction

Our model’s read on this fight, captured before the event.

Lucas Fernando holds a dominant striking edge.

Dominant striking edge: Lucas Fernando
Lucas Fernando out-strikes Billy Elekana.
Significant grappling edge: Billy Elekana
Billy Elekana out-grapples Lucas Fernando.
On the rise
Billy Elekana is climbing fast.

Career progression

Win
Loss
Draw / no contest

Cage Rating · going into each UFC fight

CM P4P rank · #1 at the top

Billy Elekana

StrikerMid

Ht 6'3" (190 cm)Reach 77" (196 cm)Southpaw

Record

3-1-0

Age

Last 5

3-1

Finish Rate

25.0%

Dominance Score54.8 / 100

Strength Score47.5(Average)

Action Score59.1(Action-Packed)

Win Rate75.0%

Sig Strikes Diff-8 / fight

Finish Rate25.0%

Hype Score18.8 / 100(2 PPVs)

Lucas Fernando

ProspectStrikerLow

Ht 6'3" (190 cm)Reach 80" (203 cm)Orthodox

Record

1-0-0

Age

Last 5

1-0

Finish Rate

100.0%

Dominance Score54.8 / 100

Strength Score50.5(Average)

Action Score66.9(Action-Packed)

Win Rate100.0%

Sig Strikes Diff+56 / fight

Finish Rate100.0%

Hype Score—

Predicted Winner

Lucas Fernando

53.7%

low confidence

over Billy Elekana (46.3%)

Key Factors

•Billy Elekana (Mid) vs Lucas Fernando (Low)

Elekana

•Significant grappling advantage
•3-fight win streak (1 by finish)
•1 upset win from 1 underdog bout (beating-the-odds bonus applied)

Underdog Bouts

Opponent	Date	Pred%	Result
Ibo Aslan	Jul 25	38.2%	W

Fernando

•Dominant striking advantage
•Significant form advantage

Adjustments Applied

Billy Elekana: limited fight data (80% reliability)
Lucas Fernando: limited fight data (50% reliability)

Category Advantages

Billy Elekana (positive) vs Lucas Fernando (negative)

StrikingFernando +10.0

dominant — Lucas Fernando out-strikes opponents by +56.0/fight; Lucas Fernando KD differential: +2.00/fight; Lucas Fernando expected 37 vs Billy Elekana's 11 sig strikes

StrikingFernando +10.0dominant — Lucas Fernando out-strikes opponents by +56.0/fight; Lucas Fernando KD differential: +2.00/fight; Lucas Fernando expected 37 vs Billy Elekana's 11 sig strikes

GrapplingElekana +6.1

significant — Billy Elekana TD differential: +0.5/fight; Billy Elekana controls opponents +62s/fight; Billy Elekana averages 0.5 sub attempts/fight

GrapplingElekana +6.1significant — Billy Elekana TD differential: +0.5/fight; Billy Elekana controls opponents +62s/fight; Billy Elekana averages 0.5 sub attempts/fight

CardioElekana +4.0

significant — Billy Elekana increases output R1→R3 (+36%); Lucas Fernando finishes 100% (cardio less critical)

CardioElekana +4.0significant — Billy Elekana increases output R1→R3 (+36%); Lucas Fernando finishes 100% (cardio less critical)

FormFernando +6.0

significant — Lucas Fernando has 82% win rate (SoS-adj)

FormFernando +6.0significant — Lucas Fernando has 82% win rate (SoS-adj)

PhysicalFernando +1.0

slight — Lucas Fernando has 7cm reach advantage; Billy Elekana southpaw vs orthodox

PhysicalFernando +1.0slight — Lucas Fernando has 7cm reach advantage; Billy Elekana southpaw vs orthodox

Last 5 Fights

How tough the opponents were, and how each fighter did against them

Billy Elekana

Opposition

41.2Softavg opponent strength

Performance

55.0Average Recent

Record: 3W-1L · Adj WR: 73.0%

Avg Bout Quality: 45.0

Lucas Fernando

Opposition

46.5avg opponent strength

Performance

71.1Strong Recent

Record: 1W-0L · Adj WR: 100.0%

Avg Bout Quality: 57.1

Recent Opponents (Last 5)

Billy Elekana

WJunior Tafa

MidStandard Windom: 38.2

WJunior TafaMidStandard Windom: 38.2

WKevin Christian

LowGood Win

WKevin ChristianLowGood Win

WIbo Aslan

MidUnimpressive Windom: 54.1

WIbo AslanMidUnimpressive Windom: 54.1

LBogdan Guskov

MidUnderstandable Lossdom: 52.4

LBogdan GuskovMidUnderstandable Lossdom: 52.4

Lucas Fernando

WRafael Tobias

LowGood Windom: 46.1

WRafael TobiasLowGood Windom: 46.1

Category Breakdown

Per-metric comparison across all scoring categories

StrikingFernando +10.0

Metric	Billy Elekana	Lucas Fernando
Sig Strikes Diff/Fight	-7.8	56.0
Striking Accuracy	56.5%	60.0%
Striking Defense	46.2%	—
KD Diff/Fight	0.0	2.0
Avg Knockdowns	0.3	2.0

GrapplingElekana +6.1

Metric	Billy Elekana	Lucas Fernando
TD Diff/Fight	0.5	-1.0
Takedown Accuracy	22.2%	—
Takedown Defense	—	0.0%
Ctrl Time Diff/Fight	1:03	-0:46
Avg Sub Attempts	0.5	0.0

CardioElekana +4.0

Metric	Billy Elekana	Lucas Fernando
R1 Avg Sig Strikes	11.0	27.0
R3 Avg Sig Strikes	15.0	14.0
Output Change R1→R3	+36.4%	-48.1%

FormFernando +6.0

Metric	Billy Elekana	Lucas Fernando
Win Rate	75.0%	100.0%
Recent Record (L5)	3W-1L	1W-0L
Age	31	29

Physical & SoSFernando +1.0

Metric	Billy Elekana	Lucas Fernando
Age	31	29
Height	190 cm	190 cm
Reach	196 cm	203 cm
Stance	Southpaw	Orthodox
SoS Score	47.5	50.5
Avg Opp Strength	46.0	46.1

Method Probability

Most likely finish: Round 1

KO/TKO43.8%

Elekana: 9.0%Fernando: 34.8%

Submission22.0%

Elekana: 16.3%Fernando: 5.7%

Decision34.2%

Elekana: 15.8%Fernando: 18.4%

Model v2.5

Billy ElekanavsLucas Fernando

Cage Metrics prediction

Billy Elekana

Lucas Fernando

Billy Elekana

Lucas Fernando

Billy Elekana

Lucas Fernando

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