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vsDakota Hope

UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. NolanSnapshot captured Oct 30, 20263 roundsmodel v2.5

Click a fighter’s name to see their full stats as captured before the event.

Cage Metrics prediction

Our model’s read on this fight, captured before the event.

Dakota Hope holds a dominant striking edge.

  • Dominant striking edge: Dakota Hope

    Dakota Hope out-strikes Francis Marshall.

  • Significant cardio edge: Francis Marshall

    Francis Marshall keeps the better pace late in fights.

  • On the rise

    Francis Marshall is climbing.

Career progression
  • Win
  • Loss
  • Draw / no contest

Cage Rating · going into each UFC fight

CM P4P rank · #1 at the top

Predicted Winner

Francis Marshall

58.0%

low confidence

over Dakota Hope (42.0%)

Key Factors
  • •Francis Marshall (Mid) vs Dakota Hope (Low)

Marshall

  • •Significant form advantage
  • •Significant cardio advantage

Underdog Bouts

OpponentDatePred%Result
Mairon SantosMar 2536.9%L

Hope

  • •Dominant striking advantage

Adjustments Applied

  • Dakota Hope: limited fight data (50% reliability)
Category Advantages

Francis Marshall (positive) vs Dakota Hope (negative)

StrikingHope +10.0

dominant — Dakota Hope out-strikes opponents by +1.0/fight; Dakota Hope has 41% striking accuracy; Dakota Hope KD differential: +1.00/fight; Dakota Hope expected 51 vs Francis Marshall's 11 sig strikes

GrapplingMarshall +2.0

moderate — Francis Marshall controls opponents +104s/fight; Francis Marshall averages 0.4 sub attempts/fight

CardioMarshall +5.0

significant — Francis Marshall increases output R1→R3 (+119%)

FormMarshall +6.0

significant — Francis Marshall has 54% win rate (SoS-adj); Francis Marshall on better recent form (3-2 L5)

PhysicalMarshall +3.3

moderate — Francis Marshall is 7cm taller; Francis Marshall has 10cm reach advantage

Last 5 Fights

How tough the opponents were, and how each fighter did against them

Francis Marshall

Opposition

45.5Averageavg opponent strength

Performance

42.2Below Average

Record: 3W-2L · Adj WR: 44.7%

Avg Bout Quality: 35.5

Dakota Hope

Opposition

42.1avg opponent strength

Performance

36.1Below Average

Record: 0W-1L · Adj WR: 0.0%

Avg Bout Quality: 78.2

Recent Opponents (Last 5)

Francis Marshall

WLucas Brennan
Low
WErik Silva
LowStandard Windom: 41.8
LMairon Santos
LowUnderstandable Lossdom: 54.0
WDennis Buzukja
LowUnimpressive Windom: 44.4
LIsaac Dulgarian
LowClear Loss

Dakota Hope

LKai Kamaka III
MidUnlucky Lossdom: 44.0
Category Breakdown

Per-metric comparison across all scoring categories

StrikingHope +10.0

MetricFrancis MarshallDakota Hope
Sig Strikes Diff/Fight-8.41.0
Striking Accuracy33.2%41.1%
Striking Defense52.1%—
KD Diff/Fight0.31.0
Avg Knockdowns0.31.0
GrapplingMarshall +2.0

MetricFrancis MarshallDakota Hope
TD Diff/Fight1.31.0
Takedown Accuracy47.6%33.3%
Takedown Defense66.7%100.0%
Ctrl Time Diff/Fight1:440:55
Avg Sub Attempts0.40.0
CardioMarshall +5.0

MetricFrancis MarshallDakota Hope
R1 Avg Sig Strikes7.242.0
R3 Avg Sig Strikes15.732.0
Output Change R1→R3+118.6%-23.8%
FormMarshall +6.0

MetricFrancis MarshallDakota Hope
Win Rate57.1%0.0%
Recent Record (L5)3W-2L0W-1L
Age2729
Physical & SoSMarshall +3.3

MetricFrancis MarshallDakota Hope
Age2729
Height175 cm168 cm
Reach183 cm173 cm
StanceOrthodox—
SoS Score37.347.4
Avg Opp Strength45.944.0
Method Probability
KO/TKO23.5%
Marshall: 12.6%Hope: 10.9%
Submission15.2%
Marshall: 9.7%Hope: 5.6%
Decision61.3%
Marshall: 35.6%Hope: 25.7%

Model v2.5