CageMetrics
Back to event

vs

UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. MalottSnapshot captured Oct 7, 20263 roundsmodel v2.4

Click a fighter’s name to see their full stats as captured before the event.

Cage Metrics prediction

Our model’s read on this fight, captured before the event.

Katlyn Cerminara has been out a long time.

  • Long layoff

    Katlyn Cerminara returns after a long layoff.

  • Former UFC #1

    Katlyn Cerminara was once ranked #1 in the UFC's Women's Flyweight rankings and wants to get back there.

  • Significant striking edge: Jamey-Lyn Horth

    Jamey-Lyn Horth out-strikes Katlyn Cerminara.

  • Tougher recent opposition: Katlyn Cerminara

    Katlyn Cerminara has faced tougher opponents lately, including Maycee Barber and Amanda Ribas.

  • Experience gap

    Katlyn Cerminara has far more UFC experience than Jamey-Lyn Horth.

Career progression
  • Win
  • Loss
  • Draw / no contest

Cage Rating · going into each UFC fight

CM P4P rank · #1 at the top

Katlyn Cerminara

StrikerMid
Ht 5'9" (175 cm)Reach 68" (173 cm)Orthodox

Record

11-6-0

Age

37

Last 5

3-2

Finish Rate

11.8%

Dominance Score35.7 / 100
Strength Score49.2(Average)
Action Score61.9(Action-Packed)
Win Rate64.7%
Sig Strikes Diff+1 / fight
Finish Rate11.8%
Hype Score6.2 / 100(10 PPVs)

Jamey-Lyn Horth

StrikerMid
Ht 5'7" (170 cm)Reach 66" (168 cm)Orthodox

Record

4-3-0

Age

36

Last 5

3-2

Finish Rate

14.3%

Dominance Score43.3 / 100
Strength Score43.2(Below Average)
Action Score46.9(Moderate)
Win Rate57.1%
Sig Strikes Diff+15 / fight
Finish Rate14.3%
Hype Score7.6 / 100

Predicted Winner

Jamey-Lyn Horth

57.9%

medium confidence

over Katlyn Cerminara (42.1%)

Key Factors

Cerminara

  • •Moderate physical advantage
  • •Slight cardio advantage
  • •8-3 vs Strikers
  • •Extreme ring rust (2.6 years layoff)

Horth

  • •Significant striking advantage
  • •2-2 vs Strikers
Category Advantages

Katlyn Cerminara (positive) vs Jamey-Lyn Horth (negative)

StrikingHorth +6.2

significant — Jamey-Lyn Horth out-strikes opponents by +15.3/fight; Jamey-Lyn Horth has 69% striking accuracy; Katlyn Cerminara expected 24 vs Jamey-Lyn Horth's 19 sig strikes

GrapplingHorth +1.3

slight — Jamey-Lyn Horth TD differential: -0.1/fight

CardioCerminara +1.4

slight — Cardio metrics are similar

FormCerminara +1.1

slight — Form is similar

PhysicalCerminara +2.1

moderate — Katlyn Cerminara is 5cm taller; Katlyn Cerminara has 5cm reach advantage; Katlyn Cerminara is 37 (potential age decline)

Last 5 Fights

How tough the opponents were, and how each fighter did against them

Katlyn Cerminara

Opposition

49.9Averageavg opponent strength

Performance

54.2Average Recent

Record: 3W-2L · Adj WR: 68.8%

Avg Bout Quality: 39.0

Jamey-Lyn Horth

Opposition

43.0Softavg opponent strength

Performance

52.0Average Recent

Record: 3W-2L · Adj WR: 61.5%

Avg Bout Quality: 48.2

Recent Opponents (Last 5)

Katlyn Cerminara

LMaycee Barber
EliteUnderstandable Lossdom: 58.6
LManon Fiorot
MidUnderstandable Lossdom: 65.4
WAmanda Ribas
EliteUnimpressive Windom: 56.7
WJennifer Maia
MidUnimpressive Windom: 40.3
WViviane Araujo
MidStandard Windom: 55.7

Jamey-Lyn Horth

LJJ Aldrich
Middom: 48.5
WTereza Bleda
LowGood Windom: 49.7
WVanessa Demopoulos
MidStandard Windom: 32.9
LMiranda Maverick
EliteUnlucky Lossdom: 54.3
WIvana Petrovic
LowUnimpressive Windom: 48.2
Category Breakdown

Per-metric comparison across all scoring categories

StrikingHorth +6.2

MetricKatlyn CerminaraJamey-Lyn Horth
Sig Strikes Diff/Fight1.415.3
Striking Accuracy34.9%69.3%
Striking Defense62.3%63.2%
KD Diff/Fight0.00.0
Avg Knockdowns0.10.0
GrapplingHorth +1.3

MetricKatlyn CerminaraJamey-Lyn Horth
TD Diff/Fight-1.2-0.1
Takedown Accuracy15.6%42.9%
Takedown Defense50.0%79.4%
Ctrl Time Diff/Fight-1:10-1:25
Avg Sub Attempts0.30.1
CardioCerminara +1.4

MetricKatlyn CerminaraJamey-Lyn Horth
R1 Avg Sig Strikes20.016.3
R3 Avg Sig Strikes26.120.4
Output Change R1→R3+30.3%+24.9%
FormCerminara +1.1

MetricKatlyn CerminaraJamey-Lyn Horth
Win Rate64.7%57.1%
Recent Record (L5)3W-2L3W-2L
Age3736
Physical & SoSCerminara +2.1

MetricKatlyn CerminaraJamey-Lyn Horth
Age3736
Height175 cm170 cm
Reach173 cm168 cm
StanceOrthodoxOrthodox
SoS Score49.243.2
Avg Opp Strength53.946.6
Method Probability
KO/TKO19.9%
Cerminara: 9.3%Horth: 10.6%
Submission15.1%
Cerminara: 6.4%Horth: 8.7%
Decision65.0%
Cerminara: 27.3%Horth: 37.7%

Model v2.4