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vsJulien Leblanc

UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. MalottSnapshot captured Oct 7, 20263 roundsmodel v2.4

Click a fighter’s name to see their full stats as captured before the event.

Cage Metrics prediction

Our model’s read on this fight, captured before the event.

Gilbert Urbina holds a dominant striking edge.

  • Dominant striking edge: Gilbert Urbina

    Gilbert Urbina out-strikes Julien Leblanc.

  • Significant grappling edge: Gilbert Urbina

    Gilbert Urbina out-grapples Julien Leblanc.

Career progression
  • Win
  • Loss
  • Draw / no contest

Cage Rating · going into each UFC fight

CM P4P rank · #1 at the top

Predicted Winner

Gilbert Urbina

73.9%

medium confidence

over Julien Leblanc (26.1%)

Key Factors
  • •Gilbert Urbina (Mid) vs Julien Leblanc (Low)

Urbina

  • •Dominant striking advantage
  • •Dominant form advantage
  • •Significant grappling advantage
  • •4 years younger (30 vs 34)

Leblanc

No key factors

Adjustments Applied

  • Julien Leblanc: limited fight data (50% reliability)
Category Advantages

Gilbert Urbina (positive) vs Julien Leblanc (negative)

StrikingUrbina +9.0

dominant — Gilbert Urbina out-strikes opponents by +8.6/fight; Gilbert Urbina has 58% striking accuracy; Gilbert Urbina expected 13 vs Julien Leblanc's 0 sig strikes

GrapplingUrbina +4.5

significant — Gilbert Urbina TD differential: +0.6/fight; Gilbert Urbina controls opponents +56s/fight

CardioEven

even — Cardio metrics are similar

FormUrbina +8.7

dominant — Gilbert Urbina has 44% win rate (SoS-adj); Gilbert Urbina on better recent form (2-3 L5); Gilbert Urbina is 4 years younger (30 vs 34); Gilbert Urbina faced tougher opposition (SoS gap: 11.3, 44% effective)

PhysicalUrbina +1.0

slight — Julien Leblanc southpaw vs orthodox

Last 5 Fights

How tough the opponents were, and how each fighter did against them

Gilbert Urbina

Opposition

44.4Averageavg opponent strength

Performance

41.6Below Average

Record: 2W-3L · Adj WR: 28.0%

Avg Bout Quality: 56.9

Julien Leblanc

Opposition

41.2avg opponent strength

Performance

27.4Below Average

Record: 0W-1L · Adj WR: 0.0%

Recent Opponents (Last 5)

Gilbert Urbina

WVlasto Cepo
LowGood Win
LUros Medic
MidUnderstandable Lossdom: 49.7
LCharles Radtke
LowUnderstandable Lossdom: 51.6
WOrion Cosce
LowGood Windom: 48.1
LBryan Battle
LowCompetitive Loss

Julien Leblanc

LRobert Valentin
Lowdom: 34.9
Category Breakdown

Per-metric comparison across all scoring categories

StrikingUrbina +9.0

MetricGilbert UrbinaJulien Leblanc
Sig Strikes Diff/Fight8.6-3.0
Striking Accuracy57.9%—
Striking Defense44.6%—
KD Diff/Fight0.00.0
Avg Knockdowns0.6—
GrapplingUrbina +4.5

MetricGilbert UrbinaJulien Leblanc
TD Diff/Fight0.6-1.0
Takedown Accuracy44.4%—
Takedown Defense0.0%—
Ctrl Time Diff/Fight0:560:00
Avg Sub Attempts0.20.0
CardioEven

MetricGilbert UrbinaJulien Leblanc
R1 Avg Sig Strikes24.6—
R3 Avg Sig Strikes——
Output Change R1→R3——
FormUrbina +8.7

MetricGilbert UrbinaJulien Leblanc
Win Rate40.0%0.0%
Recent Record (L5)2W-3L0W-1L
Age3034
Physical & SoSUrbina +1.0

MetricGilbert UrbinaJulien Leblanc
Age3034
Height190 cm188 cm
Reach190 cm188 cm
StanceOrthodoxSouthpaw
SoS Score39.246.3
Avg Opp Strength46.234.9
Method Probability

Most likely finish: Round 2

KO/TKO52.8%
Urbina: 47.7%Leblanc: 5.1%
Submission17.2%
Urbina: 12.7%Leblanc: 4.5%
Decision30.0%
Urbina: 22.2%Leblanc: 7.8%

Model v2.4