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UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. BradySnapshot captured Oct 30, 20263 roundsmodel v2.5

Click a fighter’s name to see their full stats as captured before the event.

Cage Metrics prediction

Our model’s read on this fight, captured before the event.

Jonny Parsons holds a dominant striking edge.

  • Dominant striking edge: Jonny Parsons

    Jonny Parsons out-strikes Jose Souza.

  • Size mismatch

    Jose Souza is taller with a longer reach.

  • Long layoff

    Jonny Parsons returns after a long layoff.

  • Age gap

    Jose Souza is much younger than Jonny Parsons.

  • Significant cardio edge: Jose Souza

    Jose Souza keeps the better pace late in fights.

Career progression
  • Win
  • Loss
  • Draw / no contest

Cage Rating · going into each UFC fight

CM P4P rank · #1 at the top

Jose Souza

StrikerLow
Ht 6'3" (190 cm)Reach 79" (201 cm)Orthodox

Record

1-0-0

Age

24

Last 5

1-0

Finish Rate

0.0%

Dominance Score51.2 / 100
Strength Score49.4(Average)
Action Score52.6(Moderate)
Win Rate100.0%
Sig Strikes Diff+9 / fight
Finish Rate0.0%
Hype Score—

Jonny Parsons

ProspectStrikerLow
Ht 5'9" (175 cm)Reach 69" (175 cm)Orthodox

Record

1-0-0

Age

35

Last 5

1-0

Finish Rate

100.0%

Dominance Score54.8 / 100
Strength Score48.8(Average)
Action Score69.5(Action-Packed)
Win Rate100.0%
Sig Strikes Diff+19 / fight
Finish Rate100.0%
Hype Score—

Predicted Winner

Jose Souza

58.8%

low confidence

over Jonny Parsons (41.2%)

Key Factors

Souza

  • •Significant cardio advantage
  • •Significant form advantage
  • •11 years younger (24 vs 35)

Parsons

  • •Dominant striking advantage
  • •Extreme ring rust (3.3 years layoff)

Adjustments Applied

  • Jose Souza: limited fight data (50% reliability)
  • Jonny Parsons: limited fight data (50% reliability)
Category Advantages

Jose Souza (positive) vs Jonny Parsons (negative)

StrikingParsons +10.0

dominant — Jonny Parsons out-strikes opponents by +19.0/fight; Jonny Parsons KD differential: +2.00/fight

GrapplingParsons +1.8

slight — Jonny Parsons controls opponents +81s/fight

CardioSouza +5.0

significant — Jose Souza increases output R1→R3 (+45%)

FormSouza +4.2

significant — Jonny Parsons is 35 (11 years older)

PhysicalSouza +4.0

significant — Jose Souza is 15cm taller; Jose Souza has 26cm reach advantage

Last 5 Fights

How tough the opponents were, and how each fighter did against them

Jose Souza

Performance

62.6Strong Recent

Record: 1W-0L · Adj WR: 100.0%

Avg Bout Quality: 25.2

Jonny Parsons

Opposition

34.8avg opponent strength

Performance

67.9Strong Recent

Record: 1W-0L · Adj WR: 100.0%

Avg Bout Quality: 58.3

Recent Opponents (Last 5)

Jose Souza

WDing Meng
LowUnimpressive Win

Jonny Parsons

WDanny Roberts
MidGood Windom: 36.1
Category Breakdown

Per-metric comparison across all scoring categories

StrikingParsons +10.0

MetricJose SouzaJonny Parsons
Sig Strikes Diff/Fight9.019.0
Striking Accuracy47.1%50.8%
Striking Defense—66.9%
KD Diff/Fight0.02.0
Avg Knockdowns0.02.0
GrapplingParsons +1.8

MetricJose SouzaJonny Parsons
TD Diff/Fight0.00.0
Takedown Accuracy——
Takedown Defense—100.0%
Ctrl Time Diff/Fight0:001:21
Avg Sub Attempts0.00.0
CardioSouza +5.0

MetricJose SouzaJonny Parsons
R1 Avg Sig Strikes20.020.0
R3 Avg Sig Strikes29.0—
Output Change R1→R3+45.0%—
FormSouza +4.2

MetricJose SouzaJonny Parsons
Win Rate100.0%100.0%
Recent Record (L5)1W-0L1W-0L
Age2435
Physical & SoSSouza +4.0

MetricJose SouzaJonny Parsons
Age2435
Height190 cm175 cm
Reach201 cm175 cm
StanceOrthodoxOrthodox
SoS Score49.448.8
Avg Opp Strength40.036.1
Method Probability

Most likely finish: Round 1

KO/TKO39.8%
Souza: 11.9%Parsons: 27.9%
Submission15.4%
Souza: 9.1%Parsons: 6.4%
Decision44.8%
Souza: 26.3%Parsons: 18.5%

Model v2.5